If you ask a layman what he thinks of when it comes to sports betting, then you usually hear things like “gambling” and “it’s useless”. If you ask someone who has already dealt with the subject a little more, then “money management” and “value” are thrown into the room. This information is just as useful as the information “traffic jam ahead”. All without doubt important factors, but I personally still lack a stable framework to work with.
So everyone should first be clear about what they want to achieve with sports betting. Clearly, a target analysis is needed here. Together with the available capital should now be clarified whether the goal is realistic at all. A simple way is, for example, to divide the desired monthly profit by 30 days. This way you can see what you would have to win per day on average to reach your goal.
Let’s now go through the success pyramid from the top (profit per month or long-term weather success) to the bottom. After all, we have to find out on which foundation our success should be built later on.
This should be a pyramid:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
- long term success
- profit maximization
- loss minimization
- increase profit
- decrease costs
- avoid dispersion
- increase probability
Here you can see how I imagine the pyramid. Of course, many things overlap in betting and it is not possible to delimit them directly. But as a rough overview it should be enough.
2.4 Profit maximization through higher single profit
It sounds silly at first to say that you win more if you bet more money. But this is where the “rabbit in the pepper” lies. Let’s say you want to win 900 Euros per month. Calculated down to one day, that would be 30 euros profit per day. In the best case, that would be 30 correct bets per month. Of course, you won’t find a good bet every day, and it’s obvious that you can’t get every bet right.
Wouldn’t it be better to reduce your number of bets from 30 to “good” 10 bets per month? I think so! The capital should be adjusted according to the risk level. Some “experts” probably shake their heads at the latest now, but I tell you quality must replace quantity.
2.5 Profit maximization by cost reduction
This section is quickly explained. Avoid frustration bets! In the long run you will not have the money to compensate for lost bets. I even advise against hedging. Example: You bet on a win rate of team X of 2.0. After the relatively quick 2:0, the bet is as good as won and the rate falls to about 1.2. You hedge and can no longer lose anything and make 80 profit on 100 bet. There is almost nothing to say against this, but you steal 20% profit from your tip. The next bet also at odds 2 and 100 euros bet goes completely in the pants. The end of the song is that you have won 80 and now lost 100. Makes a minus of 20 euros. Without hedging would be plus/minus zero to book. Even profits not taken can be a loss in the end.
3.6 Minimizing losses: avoid scattering
Specialize in certain quota areas. To keep an eye on the profit ratio between balance and odds, it is better to concentrate on one odds range right away, e.g. only bets between 1.8 and 2.2. Give the odds a chance to keep their probability. Apart from that, it is hard to keep adjusting to different odds. If you only bet on one goal, your analysis will become more and more spongy over time, as you will be right quite often (even without analysis). If you then try 3-way betting again, you won’t win any pots with the wishy-washy analyses.
3.7 Minimizing Losses: Increasing Probability
3.6. and 3.7 have a lot to do with each other. It should be clear to everyone that odds of 1.1 are more often correct than 4.0. Both are in my eyes not suitable to be bet. The odds indicate the probability of occurrence and in the long run (with fair odds) one should be pretty close to plus/minus zero. To make a plus out of it is up to everyone. Betting is a calculable risk, but it remains a risk and therefore you don’t have 10 1.1s right and then the wrong game comes. You also don’t have 3 4s odds wrong and by chance every 4th bet is right.
Especially with these two extremes, the win-loss ratio can be your undoing. Therefore, “increase the probability” is not the same as “go down with the odds”. You have to find a healthy balance. You can play odds from 1.35. 3 right on a wrong is manageable. If you have 4-5 games in a row wrong with the odds, you should question yourself.